India Expected to Experience Normal Monsoon This Season

India forecasts a normal southwest monsoon this year, driven by recent global weather predictions. The absence of El Niño conditions supports this outlook, which is crucial for agricultural productivity. The IMD is expected to release its official monsoon prediction soon, with significant implications for crop yields and water resources.

India is projected to experience a ‘normal’ south-west monsoon from June to September this year, attributed to the absence of El Niño conditions, according to prominent weather expert Akshay Deoras of the National Centre for Atmosphere Science at the University of Reading, UK. He referenced forecasts from various global weather agencies, including the UK Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, indicating average to above-average rainfall in India.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is anticipated to release its first prediction for the monsoon season shortly. If the forecasts from these international agencies are accurate, it will mark the second consecutive year of normal monsoon rainfall in 2025, following the below-normal precipitation observed in 2023, which saw a significant impact on agricultural productivity.

During the monsoon period, which spans June to September, Indian agriculture relies heavily on rains, contributing approximately 70 to 75% of the country’s annual precipitation. A normal monsoon positively influences both crop yields and water reservoir levels. Mr. Deoras emphasized that current models indicate a normal monsoon season due to the lack of adverse influences from the El Niño Southern Oscillation, although factors affecting the monsoon’s onset and progression must still be evaluated.

The IMD recently reported a 75% likelihood of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation transitioning to a ‘neutral’ state by April 2025, which is expected to contribute positively to monsoon conditions this June through September. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, affirmed, “El Niño condition is ruled out during the monsoon season this year.”

Furthermore, the IMD has projected neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions for the upcoming season. Last year, India experienced an 8% increase in rainfall against the long-period average, classified as above normal, contrasting the below-normal and fragmented monsoon experienced in 2023, despite initial predictions of a normal season.

Approximately half of India’s farmland is reliant on the monsoon rains for the cultivation of kharif crops such as paddy, pulses, and oilseeds. Sufficient rainfall during the monsoon is also essential for ensuring adequate soil moisture for the sowing of rabi or winter crops, including wheat and additional pulses and oilseeds. Traditionally, the southwest monsoon begins over Kerala around June 1 and generally covers the entire country by the first week of July, withdrawing from northwest India by mid-September and completely by October 15.

In summary, India is expected to receive a normal monsoon this year, supported by favorable global weather forecasts and the absence of El Niño conditions. This positive outlook is crucial for agriculture, as the monsoon significantly influences both kharif and rabi crops, sustaining the livelihoods of millions. With predictions suggesting average to above-average rainfall, agricultural resilience is anticipated to improve, especially following the challenges posed in the preceding years.

Original Source: www.financialexpress.com