Assessing Turkey’s Current Political Landscape Under Erdogan’s Leadership

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, potentially benefits from favorable geopolitical developments and aims to extend his power beyond 2028. Key factors contributing to his optimistic outlook include the fall of Assad in Syria, progress on the Kurdish issue, opportunities related to Ukraine’s reconstruction, and a stabilizing economy. Nonetheless, significant challenges and uncertainties persist, casting doubt on whether these advancements will lead to a stronger Turkey.

In recent times, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, appears to be experiencing a favorable period in the context of global geopolitical shifts. After over 20 years in power, Erdogan is seeking to extend his tenure beyond 2028, benefiting from various developments that may align with his foreign policy, security, and economic goals. According to Emre Peker from Eurasia Group, Erdogan has an unprecedented opportunity to achieve these objectives.

A significant factor contributing to Erdogan’s optimism is the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. After years of effort, Erdogan anticipates that Bashar Assad’s ousting and the potential resolution of the Syrian civil war will facilitate the return of many Syrian refugees to Turkey and increase Turkey’s influence in Syria. More than 80,000 refugees have already returned, and Turkey has initiated a military partnership with the new Syrian government led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, who came to power with Turkish support.

Additionally, the longstanding Kurdish issue may be approaching resolution, as the PKK, the primary Kurdish militant group, has indicated a willingness to cease its armed struggle after four decades. This potential shift could end a conflict that has claimed numerous lives and created substantial strife for Turkey.

Furthermore, a ceasefire in Ukraine could yield reconstruction opportunities for Turkish construction companies, given Erdogan’s strategic positioning as a peacemaker in the conflict. Despite Erdogan’s cordial ties with Russia, he has shown support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky amid shifting U.S. support. Should the U.S. diminish its defense commitments to Europe, Turkey might serve as a key arms supplier to the EU and act as a crucial link between Europe and Russia, complicating relations with NATO.

On the economic front, although inflation sits at 39%—the lowest in two years—Turkey’s GDP grew by 3.2% last year, surpassing expectations, and the central bank has cautiously reduced interest rates to foster economic growth.

Despite these positive indicators, caution is warranted. The situation in Syria remains precarious, with ongoing sectarian conflicts that could destabilize Erdogan’s ambitions. As Peker noted, if Syria’s new government fails to achieve stability, it could lead to increased instability on Turkey’s border.

Moreover, the resolution of the Kurdish issue will necessitate careful negotiation. Erdogan relies on the nationalist MHP party for support, but constitutional changes or early elections would require broader coalition-building, potentially including Kurdish parties. However, he must navigate this without alienating his nationalist allies.

Lastly, the anticipated shifts in U.S. foreign policy could pose risks for Turkey. While Turkey may gain from Europe’s increased defense spending, European nations could prioritize domestic production over collaboration with Turkey. The epidemiological shifts in security dynamics might leave Turkey vulnerable, especially concerning the U.S. military presence at Incirlik Airbase, which is critical to Turkey’s national security.

In conclusion, while Erdogan currently finds himself in a seemingly advantageous position, the realities are complex. Emre Peker encapsulated this sentiment, stating that despite several favorable developments, it is not guaranteed that Turkey will emerge strengthened or capable of exerting its influence as desired. Therefore, the political landscape remains a delicate balance, demanding strategic foresight from Erdogan and his administration.

In conclusion, despite the various favorable developments affecting Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkey, the situation is multifaceted and carries inherent risks. While Erdogan might be enjoying current successes in foreign policy, economic growth, and potential resolutions to longstanding problems, significant challenges remain. The need for careful negotiation, especially concerning the Kurdish issue and the impact of U.S. policy on Turkish security, indicates that Erdogan’s future successes are not assured.

Original Source: www.gzeromedia.com