WISER EWSA Launches Second Intensive Weather Forecast Testbed in Southern Africa

On January 30, 2025, WISER EWSA will launch its second intensive weather forecast testbed in Zambia, involving centers in South Africa and Mozambique. This initiative aims to enhance forecasting accuracy and deliver timely alerts to vulnerable communities following the aftermath of destructive cyclones. The testbed will feature increased community engagement and feedback to improve service delivery.

The Weather and Climate Information Services (WISER) programme will commence its second intensive weather forecasting testbed in Zambia, with additional centers in South Africa and Mozambique, on January 30, 2025. This initiative aims to enhance forecasting in southern Africa and deliver critical weather updates to at-risk communities. This comes in the wake of severe weather events that recently affected Mozambique and Madagascar, leading to loss of life and significant displacement.

The recent destructive Tropical Cyclones Dikeledi and Chido wreaked havoc on the region, with Chido causing over 100 fatalities and more than 800 injuries due to winds exceeding 200 kilometers per hour. These disasters highlight the vulnerability of southern Africa to such weather phenomena, compelling the need for improved forecasting methods and timely warnings, especially as climate change increases the frequency and intensity of storms.

The multidisciplinary team gathered in Lusaka includes meteorologists, scientists, and user engagement specialists participating in this week-long testbed. The project seeks to gain insights from practical experiences in enhancing operational forecasting and community engagement, building on successes from previous projects aimed at improving immediate forecasting capabilities.

During the testbed, community observers will receive regular updates and request feedback, contrasting with the previous approach where updates were issued only under severe circumstances. This increased interaction aims to refine the accuracy and accessibility of forecasts, thereby allowing communities to respond effectively to severe weather alerts.

Nowcasting, which involves short-term weather predictions, is critical for providing immediate warnings of severe weather events. The WISER EWSA initiative aligns with the United Nations’ EW4All program to ensure global coverage of early warning systems, aiming for comprehensive protection against hazardous weather events by 2027.

In light of ongoing weather irregularities such as floods and droughts disrupting communities, it is essential to enhance meteorological forecasting capabilities. Mr. Ishaam Abader, CEO of the South African Weather Service, emphasized that the WISER EWSA project targets underprivileged urban regions while reinforcing the skills of local meteorologists to improve responsiveness to weather alerts.

Prof. Douglas Parker, principal investigator, noted the importance of the lessons learned from prior testbeds, especially in community engagement, to develop tailored weather solutions. Effective communication remains vital, particularly as storms progress unpredictably, and diverse channels must be used for disseminating forecasts widely.

Dr. Itzel San Roman Pineda outlined that meteorological services in participating countries are increasingly adopting ownership of nowcasting, broadening their operational frameworks beyond initial project goals. The project successfully fosters confidence within forecasting teams, enabling them to convey timely and relevant forecasts to the public efficiently.

To overcome challenges such as insufficient infrastructure and resource sustainability for delivering continuous nowcasting services, the project will address these aspects during the intensive testbed. Efforts will focus on creating viable business models that support continual improvement of weather forecasting services across Africa.

The workshop accompanying the testbed will discuss the potential socioeconomic benefits of consistent early warning services and assess funding opportunities for ongoing operations post-project. Engagement with stakeholders will be critical, as this encompasses governmental and financial institutions crucial to the continuity of these initiatives.

Dr. Katharine Vincent highlighted the active role of volunteers providing feedback and raising community awareness on weather hazards. Their efforts, in collaboration with local disaster management committees, aim to integrate early warning systems into broader disaster risk mitigation strategies, ensuring communities are adequately informed and prepared against future weather challenges.

The Weather and Climate Information Services (WISER) programme’s Early Warnings for Southern Africa (EWSA) project conducts intensive weather forecast testbeds to improve emergency response to hazardous weather events. With southern Africa susceptible to increasingly severe storms due to climate change, this initiative aims to enhance forecasting methodologies while supporting vulnerable communities with timely information. Recent cyclones have intensified the urgency of these efforts, underscoring the need for effective early warning systems and community engagement across the region.

The WISER EWSA project aims to improve weather forecasting and community preparedness in southern Africa through a detailed approach involving on-ground testbeds and active collaboration with local stakeholders. By the end of the intensive testbed, valuable insights will be gained regarding resource sustainability, effective communication, and community engagement to enhance the resilience of vulnerable populations against extreme weather. It is crucial to establish long-term strategies that support sustained forecasting initiatives to mitigate the impact of severe weather events in the region.

Original Source: www.metoffice.gov.uk