Climate Change Intensifies Cyclone Chido’s Impact on Mayotte

A study from Imperial College London reveals that Climate Change intensified Cyclone Chido, with the likelihood of storms of its strength now increased by 40%. Cyclone Chido, the worst cyclone in 90 years for Mayotte, resulted in extensive destruction. Scientists used advanced modeling to conclude that wind speeds were significantly enhanced due to global warming, confirming concerns about future weather extremes.

A preliminary study conducted by scientists from Imperial College London indicates that Climate Change has intensified Cyclone Chido as it approached the Indian Ocean archipelago of Mayotte. The research suggests that cyclones of Chido’s strength are now 40 percent more likely to occur in the elevated temperatures characteristic of 2024, compared to the pre-industrial period. Cyclone Chido was particularly destructive, marking the worst cyclone to impact Mayotte in nearly a century, causing extensive damage to vulnerable habitation structures, primarily tin-roofed shacks, in this economically disadvantaged region of France.

Categorized as a Category 4 storm, the cyclone devastated Mayotte, with the local population largely residing in makeshift housing. While the official tally of the disaster’s human toll remains uncertain, authorities are bracing for the possibility that casualty figures could rise into the thousands. The research from Imperial College focused on assessing the impact of global warming on the wind speeds and overall strength of tropical storms such as Chido.

Given the lack of substantial real-world data, the scientists employed advanced computer modeling to simulate millions of tropical cyclone scenarios, enabling them to make inferences on the influence of recent climatic changes. Their findings indicated an increase of three miles per second in wind speeds in the vicinity of Chido’s landfall, which they attribute to conditions altered by climate change. The report states that, “Climate change uplifted the intensity of a tropical cyclone like ‘Chido’ from a Category 3 to Category 4.”

Despite the compelling indicators of climate change’s impact on cyclone intensity, France’s meteorological service has refrained from exclusively attributing the strength of Chido to global warming. Nevertheless, it acknowledges that elevated ocean temperatures, resulting from human-induced climate changes, are contributing to the increasing ferocity of storms. The cyclone’s trajectory over Mayotte exacerbated its destructive potential, according to Meteo-France.

The current climate is approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer than it was before industrialization, with scientific consensus indicating that this added heat in both the atmosphere and oceans promotes more frequent and severe weather phenomena. The capacity of warmer air to retain more water vapor, in conjunction with heightened evaporation from warmer seas, creates conditions that significantly empower tropical storms.

The study of Cyclone Chido is situated within the broader context of research linking climate change to the increasing severity and frequency of tropical cyclones. Historical data suggest that changes in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures due to human activity have contributed to the intensification of storms. Scientists utilize both empirical data and advanced modeling techniques to better understand these phenomena and infer the extent to which anthropogenic climate change elevates the risk and impact of such weather events.

The findings presented by Imperial College London regarding Cyclone Chido reinforce the urgent discussion surrounding climate change and its tangible effects on the environment. The research illustrates how global warming may be linked to an increased likelihood of severe tropical storms, highlighting the necessity for continued investigation and action towards mitigating climate change. With ongoing climate shifts, communities such as Mayotte face escalating vulnerabilities to future weather events, necessitating comprehensive disaster preparedness and response strategies.

Original Source: www.barrons.com