Increased Seismic Activity Raises Safety Concerns for Ethiopia’s GERD

Ethiopia’s third earthquake in recent weeks, measuring 4.7 in magnitude, has raised alarms about the safety of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. This seismic activity, which includes several events in the past five weeks, calls for increased monitoring as the dam holds notably more water than it was originally designed for, posing potential risks.

On Sunday, Ethiopia experienced its third earthquake in a series of seismic events, registering a magnitude of 4.7 at a depth of 10 kilometers. This quake occurred approximately 570 kilometers from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and 400 kilometers from the eastern edge of the region’s lake. Professor Abbas Sharaqi, a geology and water resources expert from Cairo University, noted that this earthquake marks the 16th occurrence in the last five weeks and the 31st in total for the year, predominantly falling within the 4-5 magnitude range. In 2023, 38 earthquakes have been reported, the largest of which measured 5.6 on the Richter scale. Comparatively, from 2014 to 2020, the average frequency of earthquakes exceeding four degrees was around 5.3 annually, with lesser quakes numbering in the hundreds. Sharaqi emphasized the need for careful monitoring of both the GERD and surrounding areas, given the increased seismic activity. According to Sharaqi, earthquakes that register around five degrees, though currently distant, pose a potential future risk, especially as the GERD currently houses 60 billion cubic meters of water. He expressed concern regarding the dam’s original design specifications—initially planned to store 11.1 billion cubic meters—which have since been significantly exceeded by Ethiopian authorities, leading to worries about possible structural risks should seismic activity persist or escalate. Recent seismic activity included two additional earthquakes on Saturday, both measuring 4.6 degrees, occurring at depths of 12.2 kilometers and 10 kilometers, respectively. Over the past several weeks, seismic events, including a notable earthquake on September 27, have primarily impacted the Ethiopian Rift Valley region, located far from the GERD but raising alarms regarding the dam’s safety as earthquakes continue to strike in succession. The continual earthquakes in this region highlight an urgent need for monitoring and risk assessment concerning the safety of the GERD.

The ongoing earthquakes in Ethiopia have raised significant safety concerns regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which has become a subject of both national pride and regional tension. Seismologists have observed an alarming increase in the frequency of seismic events, which could potentially jeopardize the structural integrity of the GERD. The dam’s original storage capacity was planned for significantly less water, yet current levels threaten stability amidst increasing seismic activity. These developments necessitate careful observation and evaluation to prevent possible disasters from earthquakes that could grow in magnitude and proximity to the dam.

In summary, Ethiopia’s continuous earthquake activity, particularly concentrated around the GERD, underscores pressing safety concerns. Experts warn that should seismic events intensify, the structural integrity of the dam, designed for much less water storage, could be at risk. Enhanced monitoring and preparedness are crucial to mitigate potential hazards linked to this unprecedented seismic activity.

Original Source: ozarab.media