Above-Normal Rainfall Forecast for Greater Horn of Africa: June to September 2024

The Greater Horn of Africa is forecasted to receive above-normal rainfall from June to September 2024, impacting Djibouti, Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, and several other countries. This significant rainy season is critical for annual precipitation in these regions, and the prediction raises concerns about potential flooding, particularly in South Sudan and Sudan. Seasonal forecasts are essential for decision-making in sectors like agriculture and health, underscoring the importance of proactive climate strategy.

The Greater Horn of Africa is projected to experience above-normal rainfall from June to September 2024, affecting countries such as Djibouti, Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. This significant rainy season accounts for a major portion of annual precipitation, contributing over 90% in northern regions and about 40% in the southern parts of the Horn. The climate forecast, released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), highlights potential flooding risks particularly in South Sudan and Sudan, reflecting patterns observed in historical events from 1998 and 2010. While the seasonal rain is anticipated to commence normally in areas such as central and northern Ethiopia and parts of Sudan and South Sudan, some regions may experience delays. Countries that have recently faced severe flooding, including Burundi, Kenya, and Tanzania, will enter their dry season during these months. This outlook emphasizes the essential role such seasonal predictions play in aiding decision-making within sectors such as agriculture, health, and water resource management. The report was unveiled at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, which assembles climate scientists along with governmental and non-governmental stakeholders to discuss climate-sensitive issues. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) supports initiatives like the Early Warnings for All to promote actionable climate forecasts. In drafting these predictions, ICPAC employs a methodical approach using seasonal predictions from nine Global Producing Centres, facilitating the processing of climate data through various calibration techniques. The temperature forecast indicates a likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions across several areas, particularly in northern Sudan and parts of East Africa.

The Greater Horn of Africa experiences a critical rainy season from June to September, essential for the region’s agriculture and water resources. The projection of above-normal rainfall holds significant implications for food security and disaster management, especially in light of recent flooding events in multiple countries. The climate outlook provided by ICPAC and supported by the WMO serves as a pivotal resource for governments and organizations, assisting them in preparing for climatic uncertainties. The utilization of objective seasonal forecasting methods ensures higher accuracy in predictions, aiding in swift responses to emerging weather patterns.

In conclusion, the anticipated above-normal rainfall across the Greater Horn of Africa is a vital forecast that carries considerable implications for various sectors, particularly agriculture and disaster management. The historical context of similar weather patterns emphasizes the necessity of preparedness for potential flooding, especially in vulnerable regions. Continued collaboration among climate scientists and stakeholders will be essential in leveraging this information for effective planning and response strategies.

Original Source: wmo.int